Paradoxically, if Russia were running out of troops to continue the war, I would expect the war to escalate
Putin cannot allow this war to end with a defeat. He is liable to be killed once the people turn on him
To avoid that outcome, the obvious choice would be conscription when troop numbers get low. Conscription is incredibly unpopular, as we saw in 2022; therefore, Putin would need additional justification for conscription. The justification would come in the form of an additional external threat – NATO
NATO, obviously, has no intention of attacking Russia unless attacked themselves. Putin would need to attack NATO and provoke a response
It appears the US has intelligence suggesting Putin planned to do just that, which spurred John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow. A trip that closely mirrors then CIA director William Burns’ 2021 trip to discourage Russia from invading Ukraine
Paradoxically, if Russia were running out of troops to continue the war, I would expect the war to escalate
Putin cannot allow this war to end with a defeat. He is liable to be killed once the people turn on him
To avoid that outcome, the obvious choice would be conscription when troop numbers get low. Conscription is incredibly unpopular, as we saw in 2022; therefore, Putin would need additional justification for conscription. The justification would come in the form of an additional external threat – NATO
NATO, obviously, has no intention of attacking Russia unless attacked themselves. Putin would need to attack NATO and provoke a response
It appears the US has intelligence suggesting Putin planned to do just that, which spurred John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow. A trip that closely mirrors then CIA director William Burns’ 2021 trip to discourage Russia from invading Ukraine