This is the (to be fair consumer) price history, and it pretty clearly shows the price calm down and return to pre tension levels due to the detonation and proper action after.
So, since the price remained the same, noone was ever forced to act due to price pressure from norstream. Industry and private housing probably did start retooling before that, due to the price spikes at the start of the war.
It also seems to show that “the market” did not expect the pipeline to reopen, given the spikes.
Give this, I change my opinion to “the nordstream detonation probably improved the german economy and reduced industry downturn”. Be it from added confidence or from creating proper political action.
If you’re talking price, then that was caused by the war, and actually reduced by the detonation by creating certainty in the market and proper political action. As seen in the graph.
As it happens, the price the day before detonation has never been gotten close to since. And the drop in price for the next year was always more than the rise over the previous year (over more than a year it crosses into pre-aggression territory on the past side)
Like, to say it another way, if you pick some N days, where N is less than 365, and check the gas price N days before nordstream detonation, it will be more expensive than N days after nordstream detonation.
I don’t see how you can think detonating nordstream raised gas prices for industry or anyone.
There are no price spikes ever since (ignoring Iran which is unrelated and caused from wanting to replace Oil). I wonder what this would look like had germany kept using russian gas (somehow) when Ukraine started bombing Russian fossil fuel infrastructure.
EditEdit: apparently I made this “edit” as a duplicate of the post oops
Edit:
Oh also germany did not import or use basically any LNG until way after nordstream. It’s not even 0.1% of germanys gas in 2021 and 2022, as you can see from the graph further up.
And your substack blog link seems untrustworthy (and is quite old), but I can’t investigate more because it’s paywalled
There was no industry collapse though.
This is the (to be fair consumer) price history, and it pretty clearly shows the price calm down and return to pre tension levels due to the detonation and proper action after.
So, since the price remained the same, noone was ever forced to act due to price pressure from norstream. Industry and private housing probably did start retooling before that, due to the price spikes at the start of the war.
It also seems to show that “the market” did not expect the pipeline to reopen, given the spikes.
Give this, I change my opinion to “the nordstream detonation probably improved the german economy and reduced industry downturn”. Be it from added confidence or from creating proper political action.
You’re confusing cause and effect - Germany industry dropped in relation to the price, which did reduce the price. https://news.laodong.vn/the-gioi/duc-lao-dao-voi-thiet-hai-khong-lo-vu-pha-hoai-nord-stream-1580126.ldo
German lawmaker’s estimate it cost at least 180 Billion to the German economy.
Germany was able to mitigate some of this by reducing consumer demand, and had mild winters. But that doesn’t remove the problem.
If you’re talking price, then that was caused by the war, and actually reduced by the detonation by creating certainty in the market and proper political action. As seen in the graph.
As it happens, the price the day before detonation has never been gotten close to since. And the drop in price for the next year was always more than the rise over the previous year (over more than a year it crosses into pre-aggression territory on the past side)
Like, to say it another way, if you pick some N days, where N is less than 365, and check the gas price N days before nordstream detonation, it will be more expensive than N days after nordstream detonation.
I don’t see how you can think detonating nordstream raised gas prices for industry or anyone.
There are no price spikes ever since (ignoring Iran which is unrelated and caused from wanting to replace Oil). I wonder what this would look like had germany kept using russian gas (somehow) when Ukraine started bombing Russian fossil fuel infrastructure.
EditEdit: apparently I made this “edit” as a duplicate of the post oops
Edit:
Oh also germany did not import or use basically any LNG until way after nordstream. It’s not even 0.1% of germanys gas in 2021 and 2022, as you can see from the graph further up.
And your substack blog link seems untrustworthy (and is quite old), but I can’t investigate more because it’s paywalled