Like, we’re destroying the one place we know is a sure bet on where we can prosper if we keep it healthy, but instead the world’s richest man is trying to expand to other planets while this one’s ability to sustain life is in jeopardy. IMO that makes us potentially a very stupid species compared to a species that doesn’t really care about meeting other aliens because they value the life on their own planet far more than we do.
Maybe. But this would still only filter some.
The great filter to me is a vast mix of filters. Some never leave their planets because they are oceanic only and forever, some because the gravity is too high to ever escape, some because they die out, others due to no genetic intrinsic motivation to expand at all, etc. There can by myriad possible filters all applying at the same time
The rare earth theory is the most boring but most likely explanation. Though it shouldn’t be as it’s kinda nice to be given a rare and unique opportunity, we shouldn’t squander it.
The latest estimates put habitable planets around one in five stars
Yes but once you compound other variables probability turns out actually quite low overall especially since we discover more and more civilization ending dangers as we probe. However I also feel like we ignore civilization accelerating shortcuts we have not found as well. So with n sample of 1 it’s really hard to make your mind on rare earth.
I agree it’s impossible to be sure with a sample of one. But I think “we’re not special” is a good assumption to make, and it leads to some interesting possibilities.