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Cake day: May 19th, 2024

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  • The thing I’m concerned about is not the absolute number when news like this are published, but the magnitude of the error. Not in a “haha, they’re so wrong, lol” way, but in a “if they get it this wrong over x years, I wonder what the error will be in 2x years”.

    “Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone.”

    Being off by 60% is massive and then new estimate will have some margin of error as well. Which could go back to the original value, but it could also be worse. We just don’t know.